Proračun vjerojatnosti preživljavanja posade u slučaju prinudnog napuštanja zrakoplova iznad mora

master's thesis

• Title (english): Probability of Aircrew Survival in the Event of Ejection over Water
• Author: Luka Mihovil Glas
• Mentor: Doris Novak (mentor)
• Committee member: Tomislav Radišić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tino Bucak (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Biljana Juričić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences; (Division of Aeronautics); (Department of Aeronautics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-05-04, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Traffic and Transport Technology; Air Traffic

Abstract

Čimbenici koji utječu na vjerojatnost preživljavanja u Jadranskom moru su temperatura mora, temperatura zraka, vjetar, valovi i morska struja. Tijekom letova za potrebe Obalne straže avion Pilatus PC-9M leti nisko i daleko od obale. Pretpostavljeno vrijeme preživljavanja čovjeka može se izračunavati pomoću više modela od koji svaki ima prednosti za određeno područje primjene. Wisslerov model predstavlja konzervativno pretpostavljeno vrijeme preživljavanja, dok Hayward i suradnici eksperimentima dolaze do jednadžbe čiji su izračuni blizu gornjoj granici vremena preživljavanja. Procjena mogućnosti preživljavanja posade aviona u moru kompleksna je zadaća te je za točno izračunavanje iste potrebno znati pretpostavljeno vrijeme preživljavanja i vrijeme do spašavanja. Proračun vjerojatnosti preživljavanja posade računa se pomoću Kaplan-Meierovog pristupa. Vjerojatnost preživljavanja nakon pretpostavljenog vremena preživljavanja smanjuje se brže s prolaskom više vremena.

Abstract (english)

Factors influencing the probability of survival in the Adriatic Sea are sea temperature, air temperature, wind, waves and sea current. During flights for the Croatian Coast Guard, airplane Pilatus PC-9M is flying at low altitude and far from the coast. The calculation of predicted human survival time can be calculated using several models, each of which has advantages for a specific area of application. Wissler's model represent conservative assumed survival time, while Hayward and co-workers have come up with a formula which results are very close to the upper limit of survival time in the cold sea. Survival time assessment in the sea is a complex task and in order for it to be calculated, it is necessary to know predicted survival time and time until rescue. Calculation of survival probability is done using Kaplan-Meier approach. After predicted survival time has passed, survival probability reduces faster as more time passes.

• Keywords: pretpostavljeno vrijeme preživljavanja; vjerojatnost preživljavanja; temperatura mora; hipotermija; traganje i spašavanje; tjelesna temperatura; avion Pilatus PC-9M
• Keywords (english): predicted survival time; probability of survival; sea temperature; hypothermia; search and rescue; body core temperature; airplane Pilatus PC-9M
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:119:284314
• Study programme: Title: Aeronautics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka aeronautike (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka aeronautike)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2021-06-08 14:04:46