Demand Forecasting Methods

undergraduate thesis

• Title: Primjena metoda za prognoziranje potražnje u opskrbnom lancu
• Author: Dinko Škudar
• Mentor: Diana Božić (mentor)
• Committee member: Mario Šafran (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ivona Bajor (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Ratko Stanković (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences; (Division of Intelligent Transport Systems and Logistics); (Department of Transport Logistics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2015-09-15, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Traffic and Transport Technology; Intelligent Transport Systems and Logistics

Abstract

Prognoziranje potražnje temeljem podataka o narudžbama umjesto podataka o potražnji krajnjeg kupca (korisnika) u lancu, na sljedećim višim razinama kumulativno generira sve veća odstupanja. Ovaj fenomen, u kojem svaki novi sudionik u lancu opskrbe dobiva sve pogrešne informacije o potražnji poznat je kao "efekta biča". U pokušaju da se smanje ove nepravilnosti, proizvođači obvezuju distributeru dostaviti podatke prognoziranja potražnje na njihovom tržištu. Ovaj rad predstavlja primjenu potražnje predviđanja metodama kao glavna tema završnog rada. Također, vrste dionica, pojedinačne razine zaliha, planiranje zaliha i metoda upravljanja, nadzor inventara i izračunavanje potražnje koristeći vremenske metode serije također su prikazani i obrađeni.

Abstract (english)

Forecasting demand in the supply chain based is on only numbers of orders instead of real quantities demanded by end customers in supply chain, can lead to discrepancy between forecasted and real quantities and that discrepancy is increasing with every new participant in the supply chain. This phenomenon, where every new participant in supply chain gets increasingly wrong information about demand is known as „bullwhip effect“. In an attempt to reduce these irregularities manufacturers oblige distributors to deliver forecasted demand data on their market.This paper presents application of demand-forecasting methods as a major topic of the final thesis. Also, types of stock, individual stock levels, inventory planning and management methods, inventory control and demand calculation using time series method is also presented and elaborated.

• Keywords: vrste inventara; upravljanja zalihama opskrbnog lanca; predviđanja metoda za vremenske serije
• Keywords (english): types of inventory; inventory management supply chain; forecasting methods to time series
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:119:771373
• Study programme: Title: Inteligentni transportni sustavi i logistika; smjerovi: Inteligentni transportni sustavi, Logistika; Study programme type: sveučilišni; Study level: preddiplomski; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) inženjer/inženjerka prometa (sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) inženjer/inženjerka prometa)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2015-09-29 10:29:51