Metode prognoziranja zračnog prometa u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom

master's thesis

• Title (english): Forecasting methods in the context of air navigation services
• Author: Ivan Lonjak
• Mentor: Tomislav Mihetec (mentor)
• Committee member: Andrija Vidović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Arijana Modić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Sanja Steiner (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences; (Division of Transport); (Department of Air Transport); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2017-09-26, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Traffic and Transport Technology; Air Traffic

Abstract

Raspoloživi statistički podaci trenutnog stanja zračnog prometa omogućavaju adekvatno razumijevanje prošlih događaja. Prije odabira adekvatne prognostičke metode, evaluiraju se ulazni podaci koji najefikasnije odražavaju prometne pokazatelje u kontekstu upravljanja zračnim prometom u predviđenom razdoblju prognoze. Nije točno definirana univerzalna primjena određene metode, ali se u praktičnoj primjeni koristi kombinacija srodnih kvantitativnih metoda prognoziranja koje događaje iskazuju u numeričkom obliku i pomoću analiza iskazuju prošle pojave te čimbenike koji su utjecali na njih. Ocjena odabira adekvatne prognostičke metode zavisi o korelaciji trenutnog stanja i predviđanja prometnih pokazatelja. Prognoza se izrađuje za određenu državu ili regiju koja je predmetom prognoze IFR kretanja zrakoplova (domaći, dolazni i odlazni, preleti) i broja jedinica usluge (rutne i terminalne jedinice usluge). Na području Europe koriste se tri vremenska razdoblja prognoziranja. Vremensko razdoblje od dvije godine unaprijed integrirano u srednjoročnu prognozu, zatim vremensko razdoblje od sedam godina zasnovano na kratkoročnoj prognozi i naposljetku, vremensko razdoblje u narednih 20 godina koje uzima u obzir niz mogućih scenarija koji će odražavati budući izgled industrije zračnog prometa.

Abstract (english)

Available statistical data of the actual air traffic status provide an adequate understanding of past events. Prior to selecting an adequate forecast method, input data are evaluated, which most efficiently reflect traffic indicators in context of air traffic management to predicted period of the forecast. There is no universal agreement about the application of a particular method, but in practice a combination of related quantitative forecasting methods is applied. They express events in numerical form and by analysis show past phenomena and the factors influencing them. The selection of an adequate prognostic method depends on the correlation of the actual state and prediction of traffic indicators. The forecast is made for a particular country or region that is subject to the IFR flight movements (internal, arrival and departure, overflight) and number of service units (en-route and terminal navigation service units). Three time horizons forecasting periods are used in Europe. The two-year timeframe pre-integrated into the mid-term forecast, followed by a seven-year time horizon based on short-term forecasts and, finally, a time horizon over the next 20 years that takes into account a number of possible scenarios that will reflect the future appearance of the aviation industry.

• Keywords: statistički podaci; ulazni podaci; kvantitativne metode; prognoza; vremensko razdoblje; IFR kretanja zrakoplova; broj jedinica usluge
• Keywords (english): statistical data; input data; quantitative methods; forecast; time horizon; flights movements; service units
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:119:776962
• Study programme: Title: Traffic and Transport; specializations in: Road Traffic and Transport, Railway Traffic and Transport, Water Traffic and Transport, Air Traffic and Transport, Postal Traffic, Information and Communication Traffic, Urban Traffic and Transport; Course: Air Traffic and Transport; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2017-10-19 09:39:59