Metode za procjenu stvarne potražnje u sustavima za upravljanje kapacitetima zrakoplova

master's thesis

• Title (english): Unconstraining Methods for True Demand Estimation in Airline Revenue Management Systems
• Author: Petra Medved
• Mentor: Ružica Škurla Babić (mentor)
• Committee member: Ružica Škurla Babić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Mirko Tatalović (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Andrija Vidović (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences; (Division of Transport); (Department of Air Transport); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2016-09-27, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Traffic and Transport Technology; Air Traffic

Abstract

Prognoziranje buduće potražnje za zračnim prijevozom predstavlja područje na kojem postoji velika mogućnost pogreške i velika nesigurnost. Ne postoji niti optimalna, niti jedinstvena metoda prognoziranja potražnje za zračnim prijevozom, već se radi o kombinacijama i varijacijama vrlo složenih metoda s ciljem što realnijeg predviđanja. Podaci o potražnji na realiziranim letovima u prošlosti, na kojima se temelji predviđanje buduće potražnje, najčešće ne predstavljaju stvarnu potražnju. Naime, kada se dosegne rezervacijski limit broj odbijenih zahtjeva se ne bilježi, a upravo ti podaci su bitni kako bi se dobila procijenjena stvarna potražnja. Učinkovitost neke prognostičke metode najčešće se određuje prema kriteriju točnosti, a ocjena prikladnosti izabranih metoda prognoziranja buduće potražnje zasniva se na promatranju razlika između stvarnih i predviđenih vrijednosti potražnje. Cilj rada je opisati elemente sustava za upravljanje kapacitetima zrakoplova i njihovu ulogu u procesu dodjele sjedala u pojedine klase prijevoza, te analizirati i usporediti metode za procjenu stvarne potražnje za uslugama u zračnom prometu.

Abstract (english)

Forecasting future demand for air transport is a domain where there's a high possibility of mistake and great uncertainty. There's no optimal or unique method of forecasting demand for air transportation, it's about combinations and variations of very complex methods with a goal to have a more realistic prediction. Forecasting future demand, based on data demand on realized flights in the past, usually do not represent actual demand. As a matter of fact, when it reaches the reservation limit the number of refusals is not recorded, but these data are essential in order to obtain the estimated actual demand. The effectiveness of some forecasting method is usually determined by the criteria of accuracy, and rating the suitability of the selected method of forecasting future demand is based on the observation of the difference between actual and predicted values demand. The goal is to describe elements of Airline Revenue Management and their role in the allocation of seats in individual classes of transport, analyze and compare the methods for evaluating the actual demand for air services in air traffic.

• Keywords: prognoziranje potražnje; upravljanje kapacitetima zrakoplova; cenzuriranje podataka; metode nadogradnje; statističke metode
• Keywords (english): forecasting demand; airline revenue management; constraining data; unconstraining methods; statistical methods
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:119:690658
• Study programme: Title: Traffic and Transport; specializations in: Road Traffic and Transport, Railway Traffic and Transport, Water Traffic and Transport, Air Traffic and Transport, Postal Traffic, Information and Communication Traffic, Urban Traffic and Transport; Course: Air Traffic and Transport; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2016-10-07 10:14:13