Title Prognostički model broja paketskih pošiljaka u funkciji unaprjeđenja učinkovitosti prijevoza Title (english) Prognostic Model of Parcel Numbers in Improving the Efficiency of Transport Author Ana-Mari Poljičak Mentor Zvonko Kavran (mentor)Committee member Mario Šafran (predsjednik povjerenstva)Committee member Zvonko Kavran (član povjerenstva)Committee member Ratko Stanković (član povjerenstva)Committee member Dubravka Hozjan (član povjerenstva)Committee member Ivan Budimir (član povjerenstva)Granter University of Zagreb Defense date and country 2021-11-24, Croatia Scientific / art field, TECHNICAL SCIENCES Universal decimal classificationUDC ) 656.8 - Postal services and administration Abstract Utvrđivanje čimbenika koji utječu na broj paketskih pošiljaka, izrada prognostičkih modela broja paketskih pošiljaka te definiranje metodologije za potreban kapacitet prijevoznih sredstava važni su za učinkovito planiranje prijevoznih kapaciteta budući da na tržištu poštanskih usluga svake godine dolazi do povećanja broja paketskih pošiljaka. U ovom doktorskom radu, kroz njegova poglavlja, definirane su odrednice modela utjecaja čimbenika na broj paketskih pošiljaka, odnosno objašnjena je korelacijska i regresijska analiza te su analizirani čimbenici koji utječu na broj paketskih pošiljaka. Zatim su opisani postupci izrade regresijskih modela koji su kasnije i testirani. Prilikom njihove izrade napravljeno je vrednovanje čimbenika koji utječu na broj paketskih pošiljaka. Temeljem dosadašnjih istraživanja i istraživanja provedenog na jednom davatelju poštanskih usluga u Republici Hrvatskoj izabrani su pokazatelji učinkovitosti prijevoza, izračunata je prosječna masa i volumen paketskih pošiljaka te je definirana metodologija za utvrđivanje potrebnih kapaciteta prijevoznih sredstava kako bi se unaprijedila učinkovitost prijevoza paketskih pošiljaka u poštanskom prometu. Temeljem korelacijske analize vrednovani su čimbenici koji utječu na broj paketskih pošiljaka te je napravljen izbor varijabli, odnosno čimbenika za izradu modela predviđanja. Regresijskom analizom također su vrednovane izabrane varijable temeljem kojih su izrađena dva prognostička modela. Modeli su testirani na stvarnim podacima čime je potvrđena njihova primjenjivost za predviđanje paketskih pošiljaka u budućim razdobljima. Također je napravljena usporedba rezultata prognostičkog modela broja paketskih pošiljaka s planiranim brojem paketskih pošiljaka promatranog davatelja poštanskih usluga čime je dodatno potvrđena primjenjivost prognostičkog modela. Uz odabrane pokazatelje učinkovitosti prijevoza definirana je i primijenjena metodologija za utvrđivanje potrebnih kapaciteta prijevoznih sredstava između entiteta poštanske mreže. Vrednovanjem čimbenika koji utječu na broj paketskih pošiljaka, primjenom modela za predviđanje broja paketskih pošiljaka te korištenjem definirane metodologije za utvrđivanje potrebnih kapaciteta prijevoznih sredstava i unaprjeđenje učinkovitosti prijevoza paketskih pošiljaka u poštanskom prometu pruža se mogućnost optimizacije voznog parka.
Abstract (english) The establishment of the factors influencing the number of package shipments, the elaboration of predictive models for the number of package shipments and the definition of the methodology for the necessary capacity of means of transport are important for the efficient planning of transport capacities, because the number of package shipments on the postal services market keeps increasing each year. Throughout its chapters, this doctoral thesis defines the determinants of the model of the influence of factors on the number of package shipments, explains the correlation and regression analyses and analyses the factors that influence the number of package shipments. The above is followed by a description of the elaboration procedures of regression models, which have subsequently been tested. In their elaboration, the factors that influence the number of package shipments have been evaluated. On the basis of previous research and research conducted in one postal service provider in the Republic of Croatia, the transport efficiency indicators were selected, the average mass and volume of package shipments calculated and the methodology for establishing the necessary capacity of means of transport defined, in order to improve the efficiency of package shipments in postal traffic. On the basis of correlation analysis, the factors that influence the number of package shipments have been evaluated and variables and factors for the elaboration of the predictive model selected. By means of the regression analysis, the selected variables, on the basis of which two predictive models have been elaborated, were also evaluated. The models were tested on the basis of real data, which helped verify their applicability in the prediction of package shipments in future periods. The results of the predictive model for the number of package shipments were also compared to the planned number of package shipments in the observed postal service provider, which additionally confirmed the applicability of the predictive model. Apart from the selected efficiency indicators, the methodology for the establishment of the necessary capacities of means of transport between the entities of the postal network was also defined and applied. The evaluation of the factors influencing the number of package shipments, application of the model for predicting the number of package shipments and use of the defined methodology for the establishment of the necessary capacities of means of transport and the improvement of package transport efficiency in postal traffic offer a possibility for optimisation of the vehicle fleet.
Keywords
vrednovanje čimbenika
korelacija analiza
regresijska analiza
prognostički modeli
metodologija
učinkovitost prijevoza
paketske pošiljke
Keywords (english)
evaluation of factors
correlation analysis
regression analysis
predictive models
methodology
transport efficiency
package shipments
Language croatian URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:119:436159 Study programme Title: Technological systems in traffic and transport Type of resource Text Extent 142 str. ; 30 cm File origin Born digital Access conditions Open access Terms of use Created on 2022-04-05 13:26:53
