Metode prognoze potražnje u lancu opskrbe

master's thesis

• Title (english): Demand Forecasting in Supply Chain
• Author: Mirna Sofie Jazbec
• Mentor: Kristijan Rogić (mentor)
• Committee member: Ratko Stanković (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Darko Babić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Mario Šafran (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences; (Division of Intelligent Transport Systems and Logistics); (Department of Transport Logistics); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2019-09-25, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Traffic and Transport Technology; Intelligent Transport Systems and Logistics

Abstract

Prognoza potražnje jedan je od elemenata upravljanja lancem opskrbe. Prognoze potražnje definiraju koji će proizvodi biti traženi, u kojoj količini i u kojem vremenskom razdoblju. Postoji nekoliko metoda prognoziranja, a to su: kvalitativne, uzročne, vremenske, prognoze istraživanjem tržišta i simulacijske. U ovom radu za izračun buduće potražnje koristit će vremenske metode prognoziranja. Vremenske metode su najčešći način prognoziranja jer se baziraju na empirijskim podacima. Što je količina empirijskih podataka veća i tržište relativno stabilno, vremenske metode su pouzdanije. Dakako, različite metode, bez obzira na količinu podataka, daju rezultate s različitim razinama točnosti, što je predmet istraživanja ovog rada. Dakle, izračun će se raditi prema unaprijed dobivenim povijesnim podacima, za različite grupe proizvoda, da se vidi kako vrsta proizvoda, sezonalnost, trendovi i ostali faktori utječu na točnost prognoze.

Abstract (english)

Demand forecast is one of elements of the supply chain management. Demand forecasts define which products will be in demand, in which quantity and in which period of time. There are several forecasting methods, which are as follows: qualitative, causal, time series, market research forecasting and simulation forecasting. In this paper, time series forecasting methods will be used in order to calculate the future demand. Time series forecasting methods are the most common forecasting methods because they are based on empirical data. The greater the quantity of empirical data, the more reliable time series forecasting methods, providing that the market is relatively stable. Of course, regardless of the quantity of data, various methods give results with various levels of accuracy, which is the subject of research of this paper. Hence, the calculation will be conducted according to historical data obtained in advance, for various groups of products, in order to demonstrate how the product type, seasonality, trends and other factors affect the accuracy of the forecast.

• Keywords: lanac opskrbe; metode prognoze potražnje; empirijski podaci; razina točnosti
• Keywords (english): supply chain; demand forecasting methods; empirical dana; level of accuracy
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:119:302085
• Study programme: Title: Intelligent Transport Systems and Logistics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2020-01-27 11:07:32